Indian Economy
GOLDMAN SACHS-INDIA STRATEGY : 21.02.2022
* Q3FY22: Profit growth slowed; Rising input costs impact margins
• Profit growth primarily led by banks, commodities
• Banks, energy and Infotech saw the largest positive surprises
• Metals, autos, staples and cement saw the largest misses
• Banks and autos have seen pickup in rural activity, consumer companies continue to see weak demand
• Prefer banks, energy and investment cyclicals - industrials, real estate & cement
• Like themes of pricing power and positive earnings momentum
MORGAN STANLEY-BANKING OUTLOOK : 14.01.2022
* Maintain Overweight on banks
* Target: ICICI Bank - Rs 1025; HDFC Bank - Rs 2050; Axis Bank - Rs 1000; SBI - Rs 680
* 2022 is a confluence of PPOP growth acceleration and lower credit costs
* This will be helped by higher loan growth and a turn in the rate cycle Indian banks have underperformed the Sensex over the past two years
• Balance sheets and profitability are much better than they have been
• Another big catalyst is the turn in the interest rate cycle particularly for large banks
NOMURA - INDIA OUTLOOK 2022 : 12.01.2022
• Dec-2022F Nifty target is 18,150
• Top picks are Infosys, Axis Bank, L&T, SBI Life, Lupin, Bharti Airtel
• Liquidity tightening is largely expected
• Consumption and services are below pre-pandemic growth trend
• Corporate earnings are recording a strong revival
• Market will increasingly focus on earnings growth beyond FY24
• Continue to be selective with a defensive bias, given our cautious view
• Overweight on IT, pharma, telecom and infra/construction
CLSA ON MARKET STRATEGY : 13.01.2022
* About 70% Of Economic Indicators Worse In November 21; Some Pickup In Dec
* Almost Half Of Consumption And Macro Indicators Also Weakened MoM
* Recent Spike In Cases Leading To Restrictions Could Hinder Eco Activity In Jan
Jefferies Mahesh Nandurkar
• Believe that India has entered a period of an economic supercycle
• This is driven by a decisive housing cycle turnaround
* Corporate earnings cycle also reversed with rising RoEs & positive earnings revisions
• Estimate 7% + GDP growth & 15%+ earnings growth in FY23
• Rate hikes unlikely to come in the way of 7%+ GDP growth
* Nifty should hit a new high in 2022
* Overweight on financials, property, industrials, auto & IT
Credit Suisse INDIA OUTLOOK H1 2022 : 23.12.2021
• Remain neutral on Indian equities
• Resilience of Indian equities has improved
* Indian equity market should continue to command a higher valuation premium
• Indian equities might experience some near-term de-rating
* Bottom-up analysis of Nifty constituents paints a resilient picture
* India's corporate fundamentals have improved and may become even better
* Domestic cyclicals such as private banks & large banks are preferred segments
CLSA INDIA STRATEGY : 15.12.2021
* Fll outflows continue in India; domestic inflows continue to gallop. CLSA says in its market strategy
* FII Outflows Continue in India; Domestic Inflows Continue To Gallop
* Fils Sold Banks Aggressively Which Funded The Rise In OW Of Discretionary
• Most Equity Schemes" Flows Improved; Value & ELSS Flows Turned Positive
CLSA ON HDFC AMC : 19.07.2021
* CLSA maintains an outperform call on HDFC AMC after Q1 earnings
* MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM TARGET: 3,150
* Marginal Miss In Q1; 13% Earnings Growth Over FY21-24
* Strong Equity Markets Are Aiding Earnings
* Earnings Buoyancy Much Lower Than Other Capital Market Plays
CLSA INDIA EQ STRATEGY : 06.07.2021
* CLSA adds ONGC & removes Bharti Airtel from India focus portfolio
* Add ONGC & Remove Bharti From India Focus Portfolio
* Investor Sentiment Elevated But Lower Than Jan 2021 Peak
* Sideways Move In The Last 3 Weeks Cooled Off Bullish Reading To 85% Bullish Level
* Elevated Bull Bear Index Reading Is A Cause Of Concern
* Gradual Relaxation Of Lockdown By States Should Complete By August-September
* Commentary After Q1 Results May Keep Investor Optimism High
* ONGC Is Factoring In A Crude Price Of Only $50/bbl
* Using Spot Prices May Drive Over 115% Upside In ONGC Stock Price
* Launch Of Jiophone In Sep Near-term Overhang For Bharti
Moody on Indian Economy : 23.06.2021
* Currently expect #India's real #GDP to grow at 9.6% in 2021 and 7.0% in 2022: Moody's (Agencies)
• Currently expect India's real GDP to grow at 9.6% in 2021 and 7.0% in 2022
* Economic shocks from second Covid wave in india will not be as severe as last year's
* Economic impact of virus resurgence in india likely to be concentrated in current quarter
* Stringent lockdowns in economically significant states will mar April-June economic activity
* Faster vaccination progress in India will be paramount in restricting economic losses to current qtr
• Mobility, eco activity in India will likely accelerate in H2 as pace of vaccinations pick up
• Lessons on economy were well learnt from last time
• Monetary policy has been extraordinarily accommodative
• Fiscal pedal remained in acceleration mode
• Strong vaccine stimulus can help India to get back on a steady path to recovery
• Markets are forward looking and are surely running faster than the economic recovery
• Strong momentum is aided by easy liquidity and heightened participation of retail investors
