PHARMA Sector
INVESTEC ON PHARMA ; 12.01.2022
* An Improved Performance In US Has Potential To Re-rate The Sector
• Dr Reddy's, Cipla, Sun & Lupin Are Best Placed
* Price Deflation Observed At High Single digits In H1FY22 Is Not Structural
• Cost Pressures, Though, Could Suppress Margin Uptick
CLSA ON PHARMA : 12.01.2022
* Price erosion for the pharma sector may moderate in US as inventory liquidation ends, CLSA says, brokerage is also seeing a healthy underlying growth for domestic market, led by stronger volume
* Sun Pharma Is Top Pick, Target Raised To *1,100/Sh
* For 2022, Expect Us Market To Recover Driven By A Higher Number Of Launches
* Price Erosion May Moderate in US As Inventory Liquidation Ends
* Underlying Growth For Domestic Market To Be Healthy, Led By Stronger Volume
* Estimate A Rising Contribution From Differentiated Products In US
• Dr Reddy's, Cipla & Torrent Pharma Are Amongst Top Picks As Well
* Remain Negative On Biocon
JEFFERIES ON PHARMAS : 05.01.2022
* Jefferies on pharma: initiate coverage on Laurus Labs with buy call & target of Rs 628/sh. Laurus Labs is a proven API capability co helpful in CRO/CDMO
* Initiate Coverage On Laurus Labs With Buy Call & Target Of Rs 628/Sh
* Initiate Coverage On Gland Pharma With Buy Call & Target Of Rs 4,566/Sh
* Gland Pharma Is A Dominant Player In Generic Injectables Manufacturing
* Laurus Labs Is A Proven API-capability
CLSA ON PHARMA : 02.07.2021
* Resurgence in COVID cases to be a boost for pharma cos selling treatment-linked drugs in FY22 but it could be transient and taper off in FY23, CLSA says
* Gains From Treatment-linked Drugs To Be Transient For Key Players
* Resurgence In COVID Cases Elevated Expectations From Cos Selling Treatment-linked Drugs
* These Cos Will See 2-13% Of Sales/EBITDA From COVID-linked Sales In FY22 FY22 Boost Will Be Transient And Taper Off To 1-10 % In FY23
* Cadila, Dr Reddy's & Cipla Have Exposure To The Vaccine Opportunity
* Model Vaccine Opportunity At 36/Sh For Dr Reddy's
* Estimate 5% -11% Upside To EBITDA For Cadila On Vaccine Opportunity
JUBILANT PHARMA - 10 YEAR PLAN : 21.06.2021
* Company Outlines Growth Path For The Next 10 Years
• No specific guidance shared on FY22/23 outlook
• Addressable radiopharma market size could increase to more than US $1.5bn
• Jubilant is the only CMO investing in ophthalmic capabilities in North America
• It expects to do 30% de bottlenecking at the Nanjangud API facility in the next two years
• Plans to launch 45 and 27 products in US and non-US respectively over FY22-FY26
• Likely to increase its capex over the next few years
• Expects to maintain its ROCE profile (17 % in FY21) over the medium term
CLSA ON INDIAN PHARMA : 11.06.2021
* Inventory levels for our coverage have risen steadily in FY21
• Inventories have been inching up to a three year high
• Attribute this uptick mainly to the US, with higher anticipated channel-partner
* Reiterate that broader US market dynamics for generics are largely stable
* Inventory levels rose steadily in FY21 in anticipation of second Covid-19 wave
* Confident of our coverage growing 5-17% YoY in the US for FY22
