OIL Sector
MS ON OIL EARNINGS CYCLE : 19.01.2022
* Deficit in global oil markets, rising domestic production, higher gas prices
• See a triple boost to ONGC/OIL's earnings
• Both, earning quality and growth, will improve
• Portfolio restructuring to lead to steep increase in ROCE
* Investor conviction still fragile, offering room to outperform
• Maintain Overweight on ONGC, Target upped at Rs 263/share
* Maintain Overweight on Gail & HPCL
GOLDMAN SACHS ON OIL : 18.01.2022
* Target for Brent spot forecast at $105/bbl in 2023
* Target for Brent oil at $96/bbl in 2022
* Long-term shortages require near-term surpluses
* Robust fundamentals have reversed last year's oil price meltdown
• Chinese demand will be large due to its zero-Covid policy
* Expect inventory draws to narrow but persist through Q122
• At $85/bbl market would remain at such critical levels
MORGAN STANLEY ON OIL : 06.01.2022
• Oil market could see simultaneously low inventories
• Risks to oil prices remains skewed to upside
• See low spare capacity and low investment levels by H2
* Reiterate our $90/bbl Brent forecast for Q3
* . Spare capacity likely to fall below 2 mb/d by H2
• Expect prices will need to rise to levels where some demand erosion takes place
CLSA ON Oil & GAS : 06.01.2022
* CLSA on Oil & Gas: demand back below pre-COVID levels; OPEC output still below target
• Demand Back Below Pre-COVID Levels; OPEC Output Still Below Target
• QoQ Gains In GRM & Improvements In Mktg Margin Should Augur Well For OMCs In Q3
* ONGC & Oil India Remain Our Top Buys
MORGAN STANLEY ON GAS : 30.12.2021
* Gas demand was 3% above pre-COVID run rate, here's what MS has to say about it
* Gas Demand Was 3% Above Pre COVID Run Rate- +ve For Gujarat Gas
• Gas Demand 3% Above Pre-COVID Run Rate Neutral For GAIL & Petronet LNG
• Key Positive Was Steady LNG Demand From All Sectors (Ex-power) Despite High Spot Prices
CITI ON OIL & GAS : 20.12.2021
• 2022 outlook Mixed'; Being selective
• Year ahead for OMCS should be marked by a recovery in marketing margins
* Getting closure on the much-delayed BPCL privatisation
* RIL earnings should see a revival across the board
• HPCL & Gujarat Gas are our preferred sector picks
CLSA on Oil and gas : 14.07.2021
* India’s gas consumption rose 11% YoY in May
* LNG demand grew just 2% YoY
* domestic gas output jumped 19% YoY to a two-year high
* Asian spot LNG price gained 10% to US$13/mmbtu
* Spot LNG futures suggest elevated prices (US$13-16) until Mar-22
MACQUARIE ON OMCS : 13.07.2021
* Macquarie continues to expect a cyclical improvement in refining margins on OMCs
• Continue To Expect A Cyclical Improvement In Refining Margins
* Core Refining Margin May Improve To $4 From An Avg Of $1.50/bbl
• Every $1 Rise Adding 9-15% To Earnings
* HPCL Has Bottom-up Capacity Growth Drivers
• Have Buy Call On HPCL, Target At 516/Sh
CREDIT SUISSE ON OMC : 18.06.2021
* Marketing margins now normalised
• Time to focus on post-divestment changes in sector
• Prefer BPCL among OMCS
• Believe new buyer has substantial room to increase
* Volumes shifts should negatively impact EBITDA for IOC and HPCL
CREDIT SUISSE ON OIL MKTG COS : 18.06.2021
* Time to focus on post-divestment changes in oil marketing sector, Credit Suisse says
• Marketing Margin Now Normalised; Prefer BPCL Among OMCS
* Time To Focus On Post-divestment Changes In Sector
* Believe New Buyer Has Substantial Room To Increase EBITDA Via Mkt Shr Gains
* New Buyer Will Have Headroom To Reduce Refinery Costs & Increase Non-fuel Rev
• Marketing Volume Shifts Should Negatively Impact EBITDA For IOC & HPCL
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY : 11.06.2021
* Global #oil demand to reach pre-#virus levels next year: IEA (Agencies)
• Global oil demand to reach pre-virus levels next year
• Non-OPEC+ oil output is set to rise 710,000 bpd in 2021
• Jet & kerosene demand will see largest increase followed by gasoline & diesel
• Recovery will be uneven not only amongst regions but across sectors and products
• OPEC+ needs to open the taps to keep world oil markets adequately supplied
• Room in 2022 for OPEC+ to boost production by 1.4 mn bpd above its July-March target
